This is the 3D web visualization created in a master thesis research about the heating demand prediction based on 3D city models.
The study provides a concept to simulate and predict the heating demand in Helsinki based on the Helsinki 3D city model and attribute information from the Helsinki Energy and Climate Atlas.
The simulation environment SimStadt uses 3D city models in CityGML format to perform urban analysis,
like solar potential-, enviromental-analysis, or heating demand calculations. [1]
CityGML is an open standardized data model of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) for storing and exchanging virtual 3D city models.
The for the heating demand calculations needed geometrical information (e.g. volume, floor area, heading and area of the exterior surfaces, etc.)
can be retrieved from the building's 3D geometry.
Having the information about the year of construction and function of a building present,
building topologies are accessed to get further information about the physical properties of the building construction, heating schedules, or usage hours.
Combining this information with weather and climate data for the region of interest, the monthly heating demand of a building is calculated
according to the German standard DIN V 18599. [2]
The impact of the changing climate on the heating demand in Helsinki is investigated
using long-term predicted weather and climate data provided from the Finnish Meteorological Institute. [3]
The expected increase in cooling demand is not considered in this analysis.
The Business as usual (BAU) scenario assumes a refurbishment rate of 1% per year in addition to the climate change. The refurbishment type is implemented according to the ‘Ministry of the Environment Decree (4/13) on improving the energy performance of buildings undergoing renovation or alteration' section 4. Less efficient buildings are refurbished first.
CO2 emissions caused by heating of the actual building stock in Helsinki in the BAU scenario.
The CO2 emissions are calculated using the CO2 emission factor of the Helsinki district heat network for 2019.
The rapid development (RD) scenario assumes a refurbishment rate of 3% per year. The extend of the refurbishments is defined according to ‘Ministry of the Environment Decree (4/13) on improving the energy performance of buildings undergoing renovation or alteration' section 4.
Additionally to the refurbishment rate of 3% per year,
the expected CO2-emission improvements of the Helsinki district heat network are considered by using the expected CO2 emission factors published by Helen Ltd [6]
This is estimated to reduce the CO2 emissions of the current building stock by 82% compared to 1990.